023  WTNT41 KNHC 290249 TCDAT1  Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021  Before sunset this evening, visible satellite images showed that a  well-defined low level circulation was developing in association  with the disturbance over the subtropical central Atlantic.  However, up until a couple of hours ago, the system lacked  sufficient organized deep convection to be considered a tropical  cyclone by definition. Since that time, a deep convective burst has  increased in size near, and to the east of the estimated  center. In addition, a curved band has begun to develop over the  southeastern portion of the circulation. Based on this increase in  convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical  Depression Eleven. There was no ASCAT data this evening over the  cyclone, so the initial intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest  Dvorak CI number from TAFB.   The initial motion of the depression is 050/10 kt. The cyclone is  embedded in southwesterly flow to the southeast of a mid- to  upper-level trough and an associated cold front. This flow is  forecast to increase as the cold front approaches the cyclone,  resulting in the system accelerating northeastward over the next day  or so. Once the cyclone interacts with this frontal boundary in a  couple of days, a turn to the north is expected. The model guidance  is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track  forecast lies in the middle of the consensus tracks.   Baroclinic forcing and upper-level diffluence should aid in  intensifying the depression over the next 24 h, despite increasing  shear. By 36 h, the combination of interaction with the cold front  and passage over much cooler waters should result in extratropical  transition. The system is then forecast to become absorbed by a  larger low pressure system by midweek. The NHC intensity forecast  is near the various multi-model consensus solutions.   FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  INIT  29/0300Z 33.0N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH  12H  29/1200Z 34.6N  47.1W   35 KT  40 MPH  24H  30/0000Z 36.8N  43.4W   45 KT  50 MPH  36H  30/1200Z 39.5N  39.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  48H  31/0000Z 43.4N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  60H  31/1200Z 47.9N  36.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED  $$ Forecaster Latto