440  WTNT32 KNHC 191443 TCPAT2  BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number  25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021  ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...   SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 88.8W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches.  The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Herrero and the Hurricane Warning from Punta Herrero to Tulum. The Hurricane Warning from Tulum to Cancun has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.  The government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo, and a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo.  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo.  A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.  For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.   DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was  located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 88.8 West. Grace is  moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to  west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a general  westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed over the  weekend. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to continue to  move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest  Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Grace will  likely make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late  Friday or early Saturday.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)  with higher. Additional weakening is possible while Grace moves  across land today. Re-intensification is likely after the center  reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when  it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late  Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace  moves inland over central Mexico.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.  WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread westward today across the northern Yucatan peninsula within the tropical storm warning area. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.  RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:  Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding.  Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides.  STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Elevated water levels will gradually recede along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours.  SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of  the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin  to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline over the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip  current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather  office.   NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.  $$ Forecaster Zelinsky