000 WTNT31 KNHC 160551 TCPAT1  BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021  ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY...   SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 86.0W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  None.  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line  A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.   DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was  located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and  satellites near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 86.0 West.  Fred is  moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this  motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through  this morning, followed by a turn toward the north this afternoon.   On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the  eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the  western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.  Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and a nearby ship indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near  50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is  forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to  quickly weaken.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.  The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance  aircraft is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches).   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.  RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:  Through Today...  Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..  Through Tuesday...  The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.  Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected.  Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.  STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...  Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft  The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to  the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be  accompanied by large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the  relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary  greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your  area, please see products issued by your local National Weather  Service forecast office.  WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning.  SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.  TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible this morning over  the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning  and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into  southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.   NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.  $$ Forecaster Stewart