261  WTNT35 KNHC 302342 TCPAT5  BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021 800 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021  ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A  TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...   SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 44.6W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  None  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia * Barbados * Martinique * Guadeloupe  A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.  Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system.  Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.  For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.   DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the  disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early  Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.  WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.  RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides.   NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.  $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin