000 WTNT42 KNHC 142035 TCDAT2  Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021  Deep convection has weakened some this afternoon near the center of  the depression, and the cloud pattern definitely is showing signs of  shear.  However, visible satellite imagery still indicates that it  has a tight circulation, and past experience suggests with that kind  of low-level structure, the depression is close to becoming a  tropical storm.  None of the conventional intensity estimates,  however, show the system as a storm yet, and since scatterometer  data also totally missed this morning, 30 kt will stay as the  initial wind speed. No change is made to the intensity forecast from  the last advisory, with the system having about 24 hours of time  over marginally warm water to intensify.  Afterwards, the cyclone  should quickly lose convection and transition into an extratropical  low, and dissipate near Newfoundland.  This forecast is somewhat  higher than the the guidance consensus on this cycle, but given that  I was on the low side on the first forecast compared to guidance, I  decided to hold steady and not waffle like the models are prone to  doing.  The depression is moving northeastward at about 16 kt, a little  slower than before.  Model guidance is in excellent agreement on  large trough over eastern North America causing the depression to  accelerate quite a bit in that general direction during the next  day or two.  The northeastward track is forecast to continue until  the system dissipates near Newfoundland on Wednesday while it is  absorbed by a larger extratropical low.  The model guidance has  shifted a little south of the previous advisory, and the NHC track  prediction is shifted in that direction.   FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  INIT  14/2100Z 35.5N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH  12H  15/0600Z 37.5N  68.3W   40 KT  45 MPH  24H  15/1800Z 40.9N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH  36H  16/0600Z 45.0N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED  $$ Forecaster Blake