000 WTNT35 KNHC 120532 TCPAT5  BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024 200 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024  ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...   SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 51.4W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  None.  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands  A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.  Interests in Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.  Additional watches could be required later  this morning.  For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.   DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 51.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday evening.  Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.  RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.  For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf  Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands... 1 to 2 inches Southern Leeward Islands... 2 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches  WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.  STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  SURF:  Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are  likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.   Please consult products from your local weather office.   NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.  $$ Forecaster Beven