020  WTNT41 KNHC 051445 TCDAT1  Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021 300 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021  Wanda's cloud pattern has again changed little since the last advisory, with bands of moderately deep convection currently located mainly in the southern semicircle.  Just-received ASCAT data indicates an area of 40-45 kt winds mainly west of the center, and based on this the initial intensity is a possibly conservative 45 kt.  The ASCAT data also show that the wind field has expanded on the west side, and the initial and forecast wind radii have thus been modified.  The initial motion is now south-southeastward or 160/7 kt.  A southward motion is forecast during the next 24 h as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone.  After that time, a developing mid-latitude cyclone currently south of eastern Canada will move close enough to break down the ridge and produce southwesterly deep-layer flow around Wanda.  This should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward and accelerate, with a quick northeastward motion continuing until Wanda dissipates.  The latest track guidance is in good agreement, and the new forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.  The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer  water during the next 24-36 h, and during this time Wanda should be  in an area of light to moderate shear inside of the circulation of a  nearby upper-level low.  This environment should allow Wanda to  maintain its strength and perhaps strengthen a little.  By 48 h, the  mid- latitude system approaching from the west should cause  increased shear, although the associated increased upper-level  divergence may offset any weakening caused by the shear.  Wanda is  forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72 h, and by 120 h the  system is forecast to weaken to a tough to the south of a large  mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic.  The new intensity  forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.   FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  INIT  05/1500Z 40.6N  37.8W   45 KT  50 MPH  12H  06/0000Z 39.1N  37.7W   45 KT  50 MPH  24H  06/1200Z 37.9N  37.7W   45 KT  50 MPH  36H  07/0000Z 38.2N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH  48H  07/1200Z 41.0N  33.1W   50 KT  60 MPH  60H  08/0000Z 45.4N  28.2W   50 KT  60 MPH  72H  08/1200Z 50.0N  22.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  96H  09/1200Z 57.5N  12.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED  $$ Forecaster Beven