609  WTNT43 KNHC 170241 TCDAT3  Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number   5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021  Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern  portion of Henri's circulation.  Although the tropical cyclone is  still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate  shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity  estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those  estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory.  Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the  forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast  to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual  strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a  significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and  that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the  previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical  cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is  possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The  NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids,  and the CTCI and HMNI models.  Less weight is again placed on the  HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri  over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear  and dry mid-level environment.   Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is  forecast to move in a counterclockwise motion over the next several  days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast  to shift eastward over the western Atlantic.  This motion should  take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night.  By 72  hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the  ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of  the forecast period.  There is still some spread in the guidance  as to when and how sharp the turn will be.  As a result, the NHC  track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF  models later in the period.    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  INIT  17/0300Z 30.7N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH  12H  17/1200Z 30.5N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH  24H  18/0000Z 30.4N  64.8W   50 KT  60 MPH  36H  18/1200Z 30.3N  66.2W   50 KT  60 MPH  48H  19/0000Z 30.3N  67.8W   50 KT  60 MPH  60H  19/1200Z 30.5N  69.3W   50 KT  60 MPH  72H  20/0000Z 31.3N  70.1W   45 KT  50 MPH  96H  21/0000Z 32.8N  69.7W   45 KT  50 MPH 120H  22/0000Z 35.0N  66.5W   45 KT  50 MPH  $$ Forecaster Brown