992  WTNT35 KNHC 041739 TCPAT5  BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021  ...ELSA NEAR EASTERN CUBA...   SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 77.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  None.  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Jamaica * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.  Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.  For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.   DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 77.4 West.  Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this  general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a  turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.  On the forecast track,  Elsa will move near or over eastern Cuba today, and approach central  Cuba tonight and early Monday.  Elsa is expected to move across  central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on  Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday.  Elsa is then  forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida  on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba.  However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba.  After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.  WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of  Jamaica for the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are  expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of  eastern and central Cuba today and tonight.  Tropical storm  conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida  Keys late Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the  watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper  Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night.  STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...  Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...  Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.  RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.  Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.  Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.  Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.  SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two.  Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday.  Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.   NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.  $$ Forecaster Pasch