543 WTNT41 KNHC 052032 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 Wanda's convective cloud pattern appears a little more organized within its eastern semicircle this evening per GOES-East visible and infrared imagery. However, cloud tops have not cooled. Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged and with the lack of any new ASCAT data, the maximum sustained winds remain unchanged from the previous advisory. Wanda is moving southward between a shortwave ridge to its northwest and a deep layer low to its south. The initial motion is considered 180/8 kt; the shorter term motion is quicker, closer to 15 kt, but unlikely to maintain itself as it leaves a zone of confluent flow. The southward motion is expected to continue into Saturday. Starting late Saturday, a developing mid-latitude cyclone south of Atlantic Canada will break down the ridge and the deep layer low will migrate farther away. The cyclone near Canada is expected to grow in size and intensity which will act to accelerate Wanda and eventually absorb the storm. The latest track guidance shows a sharper turn and has trended west during its period of acceleration, which has led to a modest adjustment to the previous forecast. The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer water during the next 24 hours, and during this time Wanda should be in an area of light to moderate shear caused by the nearby deep layer low. This environment should allow Wanda to maintain its strength and perhaps strengthen a little. By 48 hours, the approaching mid-latitude system will bring some upper level diffluence which could offset the affects of increasing vertical wind shear. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72 hours, and by 96 hours system is forecast to be absorbed by the mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 39.1N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 38.1N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 37.5N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 39.4N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 43.7N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 49.1N 23.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 57.6N 12.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roth/Taylor
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.
020 WTNT41 KNHC 051445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 Wanda's cloud pattern has again changed little since the last advisory, with bands of moderately deep convection currently located mainly in the southern semicircle. Just-received ASCAT data indicates an area of 40-45 kt winds mainly west of the center, and based on this the initial intensity is a possibly conservative 45 kt. The ASCAT data also show that the wind field has expanded on the west side, and the initial and forecast wind radii have thus been modified. The initial motion is now south-southeastward or 160/7 kt. A southward motion is forecast during the next 24 h as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time, a developing mid-latitude cyclone currently south of eastern Canada will move close enough to break down the ridge and produce southwesterly deep-layer flow around Wanda. This should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward and accelerate, with a quick northeastward motion continuing until Wanda dissipates. The latest track guidance is in good agreement, and the new forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer water during the next 24-36 h, and during this time Wanda should be in an area of light to moderate shear inside of the circulation of a nearby upper-level low. This environment should allow Wanda to maintain its strength and perhaps strengthen a little. By 48 h, the mid- latitude system approaching from the west should cause increased shear, although the associated increased upper-level divergence may offset any weakening caused by the shear. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72 h, and by 120 h the system is forecast to weaken to a tough to the south of a large mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 40.6N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 39.1N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 37.9N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 38.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 41.0N 33.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 45.4N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 50.0N 22.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 57.5N 12.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
007 WTNT31 KNHC 051444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 ...WANDA NOW MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.6N 37.8W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 40.6 North, longitude 37.8 West. Wanda is moving toward the south-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A southward motion is expected this afternoon through Saturday, and a turn toward the northeast is expected Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight, while slight strengthening is possible on Saturday. Wanda is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.
000 WTNT41 KNHC 050852 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 Wanda's cloud pattern remains about the same as it was yesterday evening, with bands of moderately deep convection mainly over the western half of the circulation. Dry and stable air is apparently limiting convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for this advisory, which is somewhat higher than Dvorak estimates but in good agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. This seems reasonable given that the cloud pattern has changed little overnight. The latest center fixes indicate that the cyclone is now moving east-southeastward, or 120/5 kt. Wanda is expected to turn southeastward today, and then southward on Saturday as a mid-tropospheric ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at an increasing forward speed. The official forecast is similar to the dynamical track model consensus. Since Wanda should move over slightly warmer waters and the shear is not expected to increase during the next couple of days, this should allow the storm to at least maintain its intensity or strengthen a bit. After about 48 hours, vertical shear is predicted to increase significantly. However, baroclinic effects associated with an approaching strong front could offset the weakening process. By 72 hours, the global models indicate that Wanda will become embedded within the frontal zone, and thus have made the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 41.8N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 40.3N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 38.2N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 37.8N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 39.3N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 43.0N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 47.5N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 53.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
000 WTNT31 KNHC 050849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 ...WANDA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.8N 38.0W ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 38.0 West. Wanda is moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the southeast is expected today, followed by a southward motion on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength or slight strengthening is expected through this weekend. Wanda is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.
000 WTNT41 KNHC 050233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 The cloud pattern of Wanda has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm is still producing bands of deep convection near and to the west of the center, with dry and stable air limiting the amount of convection on the east side. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range, and based on that data and the Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 45 kt. Satellite images indicate that Wanda has turned to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 090/5 kt. Wanda is expected to turn southeastward on Friday and then southward on Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at increasing forward speeds Sunday and Monday. The latest models have trended southward during the next couple of days, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Wanda will likely move over slightly warmer waters and into a more unstable environment during the next couple of days, which should allow the storm to maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly during that time period. The global models all agree that Wanda will merge with a strong front in about 72 hours. Therefore, the new NHC forecast shows extratropical transition completing by that time period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but is near the middle of the guidance envelope after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 42.3N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 41.0N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 39.1N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 37.5N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 40.5N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 44.4N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 50.8N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
000 WTNT31 KNHC 050232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 ...WANDA TURNS EASTWARD AND IS A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.3N 38.7W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 38.7 West. Wanda is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the southeast is expected on Friday, followed by a southward motion on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength or slight strengthening is expected on Friday and this weekend. Wanda is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
