000 WTNT33 KNHC 210552 TCPAT3  BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021  ...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TODAY...   SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 73.4W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  None  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island  A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City  A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.  A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.  A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri.  Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.   DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward  the north-northwest expected late today or tonight.  On the  forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with  higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24  hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at  or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or  southern New England.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve  Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.  STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...  Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft  The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.  WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning  area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions  expected by tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the  hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical  conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are  expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.  RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.  SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today  and Sunday.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip  current conditions.  Please consult products from your local  weather office.   NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.  $$ Forecaster Brown