000 WTNT31 KNHC 161200 TCPAT1  BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021  ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY...   SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  None.  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line  A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.   DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.8 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the Florida  Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast before landfall.  After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.  RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:  Through Today...  Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..  Through Tuesday...  The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.  Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected.  Through Wednesday...  Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front.  Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.  STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...  Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft  The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.  WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning.  SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.  TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible early this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.   NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.  $$ Forecaster Pasch