Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1
ActuCyclone
13 août 2021
018 WTNT22 KNHC 131453 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WACHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 49.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 49.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 48.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.7N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.2N 55.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N 59.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 63.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.4N 68.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 73.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG